The current Global Project Risk Management maturity level could be described as a stage in which the risk management community has already learned the Risk Matrix (RM) downsides but still hasn’t learned quantitative risk analysis (QRA) pitfalls.

Again and again, project risk consultants identify the downsides of the project RM tool and recommend QRA as the better alternative. Unconsciously, they compare the negative sides of RM with the positive sides of QRA.

Monte Carlo Simulation, as the most recognised QRA method, is becoming more popular but most risk simulation tools and the ways how they are applied have some important functionalities missing. This makes the results of this simulation unreliable.

The next stage will be the discovery of QRA downsides.

Alex Lyaschenko

PMO | Portfolio Planning & Delivery | PMP | P3O Practitioner | AgilePM Practitioner | Six Sigma